Japan's long-running governing party loses majority, raising uncertainty over make-up of next government

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Japan's long-running governing party loses majority, raising uncertainty over make-up of next government

时间：2024-10-29 17:45 来源：未知作者：admin 阅读：次

Japan's ruling coalition has lost its parliamentary majority at Sunday's national election, raising uncertainty over the make-up of the next government and the outlook for the world's fourth-largest economy.

With all but 20 of the 465 seats accounted for, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and longtime coalition partner, Komeito, took 209 seats in the lower house of parliament, public broadcaster NHK reported.

It is the coalition's worst result since briefly falling from power in 2009.

"This election has been very tough for us," Mr Ishiba told TV Tokyo.

Mr Ishiba took the reins from the deeply unpopular Fumio Kishdia, who quit in September following months of bad polling due to a cost-of-living crisis, and revelations senior members of the LDP were misusing political donations.

Voters angry with political-funding scandal

The party promised to clean up its finances ahead of the election but allowed most of more than 40 members who failed to record political donations to stand for the party.

Voters at a polling station for Japan's lower house election in Tokyo.

His predecessor, Fumio Kishida, quit after his support fell due to anger over a cost-of-living crunch and the scandal involving unrecorded donations to members.

"The results so far have been extremely severe, and we take them very seriously," Mr Ishiba told NHK.

"I believe the voters are telling us to reflect more and become a party that lives up to their expectations."

Mr Ishiba is renowned as a reformer and has previously been critical of his own party.

It's made him popular among voters, but ultimately the party's blemishes badly hurt his election hopes.

"Before Ishiba became Prime Minister, he was more on the public's side, but now he's the captain and it's hard work," one voter told the ABC.

"How much can he change the current system of LDP?"

Smaller parties could prove key to forming government

The biggest winner of the night, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), had 143 seats so far.

Yoshihiko Noda, leader of Japan's CDPJ, said his party would work with other opposition parties for a change of government.

"This is not the end, but the beginning," CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda told a press conference.

The outcome may force parties into fractious power-sharing deals to rule, potentially ushering in political instability as the country faces economic headwinds and a tense security situation in East Asia.

Mr Noda added that his party would work with other opposition parties to aim for a change of government.

Mr Ishiba said he would wait until the final results, likely due later today, before considering potential coalitions or other power-sharing deals.

For Mr Ishiba, potential additional partners include the Democratic Party of the People (DPP), which calls for lower taxes, and the conservative Japan Innovation Party.

DPP chief Yuichiro Tamaki has not ruled out some cooperation with the LDP-led coalition, but Innovation Party head Nobuyuki Baba has rejected the idea.

'I still don't find other parties and policies very appealing'

Unlike 2009, when the LDP last lost majority, there was not a huge swell of voters eager for change.

The country is suffering from voter apathy, with only one in two voters casting a ballot.

The Pew Research Centre reported only a third of overs are satisfied with the state of Japanese democracy, and less then that are happy with either major party.

"I voted for the LDP," voter Takeru Miyazawa told the ABC.

"It's not that I am a big fan of the LDP, I have some concerns about the future looking at the current economy, but I still don't find other parties and policies very appealing."

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan also suffers from a bad reputation from the last time it was in office, from 2009 to 2012.

Jeffrey Hall, an expert in politics at Kanda University of International Studies, said having its former Prime Minister Mr Noda lead the party again was a turnoff for many voters.

"Voters in Japan seemed to be quite pessimistic for most of the last 10 years," he said.

"It seems like the opposition parties offer very little other than being a LDP light."

"Negative feelings seem to be dominating more than a positive vision for change."

Some parties' policies at odds with Ishiba's party

The DPP calls for halving Japan's 10 per cent sales tax until real wages rise, a policy not endorsed by the LDP.

Meanwhile, the Innovation Party has pledged tougher donation rules to clean up politics.

"The DPP is focused on ultimately making the country better and ensuring financial resources are allocated more appropriately, so that's why I decided to vote for them," Keisuke Yoshitomi, a 39-year-old office worker, said after casting his vote at a polling station in Tokyo.

Voters punished Mr Ishiba's party over a funding scandal and inflation.

Political wrangling could also be a headache for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) if Mr Ishiba chooses a partner that favours maintaining near-zero interest rates when the central bank wants to gradually raise them.

"The weak yen is causing a lot of inflation," voter Ken Takakura told the ABC.

"The government weakened the yen, but only a few big companies are making profits.

The Innovation Party opposes further increases in interest rates, and the DPP leader has said the BOJ may have been hasty in raising rates, while the central bank wants to gradually wean Japan off decades of massive monetary stimulus.

Problems could arise if Mr Ishiba chooses a partner that favours maintaining near-zero interest rates, when the central bank wants to raise them.

"Without a strong government, it would be more difficult for the BOJ to raise rates and keep the weak yen under control," said Masafumi Fujihara, associate professor of politics at Yamanashi University.

Japanese stocks and the country's yen are expected to fall while longer-dated government bond yields are seen rising as investors react to the uncertainty.

"The voters' judgement on the ruling bloc was harsher than expected," said Saisuke Sakai, senior economist at Mizuho Research and Technologies.

"Uncertainty over the administration's continuity has increased, and the stock market is likely to react tomorrow with a sell-off, especially among foreign investors."

Reuters/AP

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