Do Indonesia's South China Sea clashes with Chinese boats signal an escalating conflict?
analysis
Indonesia has grown more protective of its maritime borders in the South China Sea.
Indonesia has made a point of driving at least three Chinese vessels out of waters near its coastline in the space of a week.
Many have linked what appears to be a more forceful response to Chinese ships in the contested South China Sea to the fact that ex-special forces commander Prabowo Subianto was inaugurated as president earlier this month.
Beijing appeared to be "trying to test" the new president, said research fellow Abdul Rahman Yaacob from the Lowy Institute's South-East Asia program.
China has maritime territorial disputes with several South-East Asian nations.
Yet such intrusions also occurred during the presidency of Joko "Jokowi" Widodo.
Indonesia does not have a formal territorial dispute with China over the South China Sea but has become increasingly protective of its rights in the region, while Chinese ships have regularly entered the area Indonesia calls the North Natuna Sea.
Dr Yaacob said it was likely a matter of the Prabowo government wanting to publicise its response, rather than Jokowi's quieter approach.
"What I suspect is that it's more Prabowo changing the Indonesian way of dealing with the Chinese in the North Natuna Sea," he said.
"Indonesia is trying to signal to China that in terms of territorial integrity, it is something he is really serious on."
The latest incidents took place in Indonesia's exclusive economic zone off the country's Natuna Islands, roughly 1,500 kilometres from China's Hainan Island.
"Indonesia's Maritime Security Agency will continue to show its commitment to maintaining security and enforcing the law in Indonesian waters," a statement from the agency said.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said a coastguard vessel had carried out routine patrols in waters under Chinese jurisdiction.
"China is ready to enhance communication and consultation with Indonesia through diplomatic channels," he added.
Indonesia's sea lanes are crucial for global trade and commerce.
Dewi Fortuna Anwar, one of Indonesia's leading experts on foreign policy, told the ABC that "looking at Chinese behaviour, it's becoming more assertive".
China claims sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea via a "nine-dash line" on its maps that cuts into the 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zones of Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague in 2016 said China's claim had no basis under international law, a ruling Beijing does not recognise.
A military man in the presidential palace
Over the past five years, Prabowo served as defence minister under Jokowi — a position he used to drive modernisation in the Indonesian military.
Along with many Indoneisan miltary figures, Prabowo Subinato had historically seen China as the country's greatest threat.
Australian Strategic Policy Institute analysts Gatra Priyandita and Fitriani wrote recently that Prabowo "believes in the importance of military strength and that national security is integral to economic prosperity".
"As president, he aims to continue that focus, working towards boosting the defence budget from 0.7 to 1.5 per cent of GDP by 2029," they said.
The first point of order for Prabowo's cabinet, inaugurated just last week, was taking ministers to a military academy where they were pictured in air-conditioned tents and doing army drills.
Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati took a selfie with her colleagues during a cabinet retreat to a military academy.
For Dr Yaacob, the military retreat was indicative of how Prabowo intended to run the country.
"How he looks at things is still from the military point of view," he said.
Make nickel not war
This year has also seen heightened tensions between China and the Philippines.
At the ASEAN Summit earlier this month, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said it was "regrettable that the overall situation in the South China Sea remains tense and unchanged" due to China's actions, which he said violated international law.
"We continue to be subjected to harassment and intimidation," Marcos said.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang palmed off the criticism, blaming "external forces" for interfering in regional affairs — understood to be a thinly veiled reference to the United States.
But analysts say escalation of tensions in the South China Sea is not in the interests of either Jakarta or Beijing.
Far more engaged with foreign affairs than his predecessor, Prabowo has signalled his intention to maintain positive relationships with both China and Western powers — the US and Australia in particular.
Prabowo has discussed strengthening Indonesia's security ties with China.
He visited China frequently as defence minister and just weeks into his presidency, Prabowo will visit China and the US as part of a five-country tour.
China has built key infrastructure projects in Indonesia like the Jakarta-Bandung high speed rail — and Indonesia remains desperate to attract investors for its new capital city, Nusantara.
It is important for China, meanwhile, to keep strategically located and resource-rich Indonesia onside.
"In terms of geography, all the critical sea lanes in South-East Asia go through Indonesia," Dr Yaacob said.
"Of course you want to be friendly to Indonesia."
China's electric vehicle boom is reliant on Indonesia for nickel and other critical minerals.
Indonesia is the world's largest producer of nickel, accounting for roughly a third of global supply.
And after Indonesian export bans on raw materials, state-backed Chinese firms have spent billions of dollars building critical-mineral processing facilities on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi.
Indonesia's largest trading partner is China — and China was its second largest source of foreign direct investment during the first half of 2024 (after only Singapore).
Dewi Fortuna Anwar says while China has become more assertive against Indonesia at sea, the two countries are very important to one another.
Professor Anwar said that while the Indonesian military, particularly figures such as Prabowo, had historically seen China as the country's greatest threat, that was changing.
She said the bilateral relationship was likely to expand beyond economic ties under his presidency.
"Prabowo, in his last meeting with Xi Jinping, also talked about broadening security cooperation because at the moment, most of Indonesia's relations towards China is heavily weighted towards economics.
"He views the protection of the Indonesian territory — the Indonesian nation — as paramount."
ABC/wires
By：ABC(责任编辑：admin)
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