Inside the Republican strategy that could cost Kamala Harris this crucial swing state
Republicans are waging a fierce ground game in the crucial swing state of Michigan.
You'd be mistaken to write off the group of MAGA supporters gathered at a Michigan intersection urging motorists to "Honk for Trump" as a futile attempt to win votes for the former president.
"It's about reminding people that there's an election and reminding them that they can vote for Trump," says Mark Forton, the chairman of the Macomb County Republican Party.
"There's going to be tonnes of media in America against Trump, believe me, so we got to be out there best we can."
Our roadside conversation is interrupted by a cacophony of noise – beeping, revving, and hollering from motorists. In the Honk for Trump poll, at least, the former president is winning.
We're in Michigan, a key battleground state that Democrat Kamala Harris almost certainly has to win if she is going to become the next president of the United States.
Mark Forton, the Republican Party chairman for Macomb County, campaigning for Donald Trump.
In Michigan, Republicans are fighting to win votes both for Donald Trump and local candidates like Mike Rogers who is running for Senate.
It’s part of a string of states that, from the ‘90s, have voted for Democrat Presidents – the so-called "Blue Wall". Yet in 2016, Michigan was one of three Blue Wall states that fell to Donald Trump. He won it by the slimmest margin of any state that year – 0.23 per cent.
Joe Biden won it back in 2020 and right now, polls in Michigan are neck and neck between Harris and Trump.
Some Democrats are quick to dismiss Michigan Republicans' efforts to secure support ahead of this year's presidential election. But on the ground, it's clear the conservatives have a strategy, and it could cost Kamala Harris this crucial swing state.
Expanding the Republican vote
In American elections, voting isn't compulsory. Campaigns use two main approaches: firstly, mobilising their existing voter base who supported their party in the past to vote again, and secondly, persuading swing or undecided voters to join their side.
People who routinely cast ballots for the other party aren't often prioritised, but that's not Mark Forton's strategy.
He's knocking on doors regardless of the resident's recorded political position.
Republicans have a solid base in Macomb county, but they need it to be bigger.
"We're going to everybody," he says. "You don't know who's on the other side of the door and you don't know how they're suffering."
A ground swell of support for Trump among the working class in Macomb in 2016 is often credited as being the reason he won the state by just 10,000 votes.
Forton spent his life working in the car manufacturing industry. He's watched inflation and job losses impact households across Macomb in recent years.
"Maybe they just lost jobs because factories move?" he says. "We're going to focus on winning the Democrat vote because those people deserve a future too."
In 2020, Macomb Republicans targeted suburbs that are traditionally home to unionised, Democrat-leaning residents. In that year, they won every county office position on the voting ballot bar one.
"We won everything except the sheriff's race in the county," explains Forton. "This county is critical in Michigan and we've got to win big again."
MAGA supporters are working to secure a second Trump presidency.
Door knocking with Forton gives a glimpse into the ways Republicans are trying to win more votes. He visits homes with the Republican candidate for sheriff, Terence Mekoski.
Forton views residents who say they don't wish to speak about the presidential election, or who are yet to decide, as guaranteed Republican votes.
"By November, they will vote for Trump," he says, "Because they're not a left-wing radical that's buried in concrete. They're thinking."
At the doors, topics discussed range from the immigration system to gun ownership, from COVID-19 restrictions to Trump's character.
"Would you want a young man with his exact moral fibre to step into your house and take your daughter out? I don't think so," one independent voter says.
In multiple conversations, Forton and Mekoski deploy a persuasion tactic, explaining how they've been to Trump's resort at Mar-a-Lago several times in the past year. They say Trump is nothing like the way he's portrayed in the media.
A groundswell of Trump support in Macomb County is often credited as the reason he won Michigan in 2016.
"I've had the opportunity to meet Donald Trump many times," says Mekoski, going on to describe Trump as "respectful" and "pleasant".
"I haven't met very many people that raise great kids and are rotten people," he adds. "His children are second to none."
Of the three undecided voters they speak to, one remains unconvinced, and two say they're leaning towards voting for Trump.
Persuading the African American community
To win Michigan, the Trump campaign is not relying on just winning the votes of the white working class. It’s targeting African Americans too.
The Black community overwhelmingly votes Democratic. Polls show while most African American voters support Kamala Harris over Donald Trump for president, the Democrat candidate's popularity in the community is lower than Joe Biden's in 2020.
Earlier this year, Trump urged Republican leaders in Michigan to increase their outreach to this key demographic.
At a Republican fundraising dinner north-west of Detroit, a city where 78 per cent of the population is Black, we see Trump's strategy in action.
Young men playing basketball in Detroit, Michigan.
Almost 80 per cent of Detroit’s population is African American, who largely vote Democratic.
Two prominent African American figures are guest speakers – Trump's former housing and urban development secretary Dr Ben Carson and former Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick.
Kilpatrick was the mayor of Detroit from 2002 to 2008 – and a Democrat – but this year he's supporting Donald Trump. His attendance has attracted the media, a coup for the Oakland County Republican Party and event organiser, chairman Vance Patrick.
"We need more people," explains Patrick. "How do we get more people? By convincing Democrats to see a different path. Kwame is here just to bring that home to them."
In Kilpatrick's speech, he explains why he's backing the former president.
"It's not about warm and touchy feelings, it's about how we come together as a nation and preserve our way of life," Kilpatrick says on stage.
"I want Trump in the room when Vladimir Putin shows up, I want Trump in the room if Xi from China walks into the room, I want Trump in the room when Kim Jong Un comes to play," he says to rapturous applause.
Former Mayor of Detroit Kwame Kilpatrick was once a Democrat but is now backing Trump.
But there is more to Kilpatrick's story than just being a Democrat who converted to the Republican cause.
In 2013, he was sentenced to 28 years in prison for corruption crimes, including extortion and fraud. After serving seven years, he had his sentence commuted in 2021 by then-president Donald Trump.
As a politician with a criminal history, Kilpatrick believes that Trump's own convictions have helped to garner support among African American voters.
"The inequity in prosecution and sentencing has been going on in America for a long time," Kilpatrick says.
"People in the community feel that somebody who has experienced it will be better prepared to meet it and try and change it."
It's a sentiment that Trump has repeated himself.
"I think that's why the Black people are so much on my side now because they see what's happening to me, happens to them," he said in February.
Republicans and Democrats are knocking on doors across Michigan to win votes.
Locals at a White Castle fast food outlet in the suburbs of Detroit, Michigan.
"I got indicted a second time and a third time and a fourth time and a lot of people said that that's why the Black people like me because they have been hurt so badly and discriminated against."
The message may be resonating, with a recent poll finding one in four young African American men in the US support the former president.
The battleground within the battleground
Despite favour in some communities, Donald Trump's path to the White House via Michigan isn't clear cut. Kent County, in the state's west, illustrates the potential roadblocks.
Kent County has historically produced some key Republican figures – former president Gerald Ford is from here – but in recent elections, more and more voters have been casting ballots for Democrats.
In 2022, congresswoman Hillary Scholten became the first Democrat to win her western Michigan seat in almost 50 years.
Traditionally Republican Kent County is West Michigan’s manufacturing heartland and has become a battleground area.
"I talk to people in my district every day who are still undecided about the race," she says.
Congresswoman Scholten believes Kamala Harris needs to attract voters who have conservative values while also maintaining the Democrat's core base.
"I think we get so lost in this idea that Trump is going to be so much worse … and that should be enough [for people to vote Democratic]. We need to acknowledge the ways that we have not shown up for people," she says, citing the economy and inflation as the issues where Democrats are vulnerable.
"It doesn't resonate with people at the end of the day if they still can't afford their basic needs … I think there's no harm in acknowledging that."
Amid the Democratic shift, Republicans are fighting hard to retain the support of Kent County voters. Trump's running mate, JD Vance, has held three rallies here during the campaign.
More residents in traditionally Republican Kent County have been voting Democratic.
Yet, dotted across the county are billboards that visually depict an issue for the party ahead of the election – conservative voters who have abandoned Donald Trump.
"I'm a former Trump voter. I love the Constitution. I'm voting for Harris" reads one, with a picture of a smiling, middle-aged white man. Further down the highway is another with a different face, but the same message.
Tom Moore is a former Trump voter who is now making the case against him, agreeing to be featured in the billboard campaign.
"The Republican Party has changed," he says. "It doesn't reflect the values that I have."
Moore is an army veteran and gun owner, but he's been alarmed by Trump's approach to foreign policy.
"If [Trump] gets to power, he'll pull the United States out of the world, isolate us, and that's not good for the world and it's not good for our economy," he says.
Former Trump voter Tom Moore is supporting Kamala Harris for president this election.
A woman working at a diner in a conservative part of west Michigan.
The $US50 million billboard and ad campaign was arranged by the Republican Voters Against Trump group and is paid for by the Republican Accountability PAC. It's largely funded by anti-Trump mega-donors, including both conservatives and progressives.
Moore voted for Trump in 2016, then didn't vote for either major candidate in 2020. This election he is voting for Kamala Harris. It's a decision that has put him at odds with the rest of his conservative community.
"I'm truly in exile," he says. "I don't belong to the Republican Party anymore, but of course, I'm not really a Democrat."
Moore admits he doesn't think his billboards will convert committed Trump voters, but hopes they'll encourage undecided voters to think twice.
One of a series of billboards arranged by the Republican Voters Against Trump group.
"I'm a US Army veteran, I'm a conservative, I'm a gun owner, and I'm not voting for Trump," he explains. "It makes it more real [that] there must be a good reason why I'm not voting for him. Maybe it will make someone think a little bit."
At the local diner where we met for lunch, the conversation turns to a rally that JD Vance is holding nearby the following day.
"I hope he sees one of my billboards," Moore says with a smile.
Watch Kamala's Battleground on Foreign Correspondent tonight at 8pm on ABC TV and ABC iview.
By：https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-03/kamala-harris-should-have-michigan-in-the-bag-she-doesnt/104399584(责任编辑：admin)
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