An arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu may not change the war, but it could affect Israel's allies
analysis
The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu for his actions in the Gaza war.
In many ways, the issuing of arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant for alleged crimes against humanity and war crimes is the realisation of Israel's worst fears about the International Criminal Court (ICC), and the reason it is not a state party.
Both are unlikely to travel to one of the 125 countries now obligated to arrest them, which include Australia, meaning the probability of an imminent trial is very low.
But the more immediate impact of the decision could be on Israel's allies, who now must consider whether their support for Israel is more important than their support of international institutions and treaties.
"It's quite important to stress that Benjamin Netanyahu makes decisions about how the war in Gaza unfolds, about humanitarian access, about the use of weapons there, that the conduct at the heart of the arrest warrant is persisting," says Janina Dill, a professor of International Law at the University of Oxford.
"That means that currently any state that diplomatically or materially supports Israel's war in Gaza risks supporting crimes against humanity and war crimes.
"It's really quite clear to me that third states should take this as a really relevant piece of information in deciding whether they put themselves in legal jeopardy in supporting Israel's war."
Yoav Gallant was sacked as Israel's defence minister by Benjamin Netanyahu, who cited a lack of trust.
Israel's most critical ally, the United States, is not a party to the ICC either and may choose to take retributive steps against its members, with the Biden administration having already expressed willingness to work with Congress to impose sanctions against the court.
US President Joe Biden issued a statement following the news saying the warrants for the Israeli leaders was "outrageous" and that "whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas".
Despite those threats and enormous political pressure, the pre-trial chamber of the ICC has nevertheless substantiated, in stark legal terms, the significant concerns about Israel's response to the October 7 Hamas attacks.
Chief among them was the lack of food, medicine and essential services.
These are the main grounds that have been upheld by the pre-trial chamber and yet, nearly 14 months in to the war, these problems persist in parts of Gaza.
Benjamin Netanyahu has railed against the court, calling it an "enemy of humanity" and saying the decision is anti-Semitic, biased and morally bankrupt, but he now has the questionable distinction of facing court both in his own country, for alleged bribery, fraud and breach of trust, as well as in The Hague.
Investigating and potentially prosecuting Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant domestically for their direction of the war in Gaza is one way for Israel to avoid further international isolation.
Israel has long argued that, as a democracy with an independent legal system, it is immune to ICC prosecution under something known as the principle of complementarity.
"It's acknowledged that if Israel was to radically change its position and demonstrate that it was legitimately conducting an investigation and that there is a real prospect of possible prosecutions, then obviously the ICC process would be halted," Professor of International Law at the Australian National University, Donald Rothwell, told the ABC.
But as there has been no investigation of these specific allegations within Israel — and the response to the arrest warrants from Israeli MPs across the political spectrum makes clear that there won't be — these two senior officials now join Russian President Vladimir Putin among the leaders wanted for trial at the ICC.
Warrants one of several rulings against Israel
The issuing of warrants adds to a significant list of international decisions against Israel in the past year, including an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice that its ongoing occupation of the West Bank and Gaza was unlawful.
The United Nations General Assembly has voted to endorse that decision and to grant further rights and privileges to the Palestinian delegation, something Israel had long resisted.
The weight of international condemnation has been building for some time but is arguably yet to produce a major change in direction from the current Israeli government or from Israel's allies, who supply the weapons and diplomatic cover.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had avoided speculating how his government would act when the warrant applications were made in May with Foreign Minister Penny Wong only going as far as saying "Australia respects the independence of the ICC and its important role in upholding international law".
Penny Wong did not directly comment on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's arrest warrant.
Even Hamas welcomed the ICC's decision, despite the court announcing Hamas commander Mohammed Deif would also face charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity, including for extermination, torture and rape.
Israel says it killed Deif in an air strike months ago, but Hamas denies that.
Palestinians are responding with both vindication and resignation — they feel abandoned by the international community and wonder why such a move has taken so long and whether it will lead to any improvement.
"It's a huge moment of relief, feeling that we are heard and seen," Gazan political analyst Muhammad Shehada, who works for the EuroMed Human Rights Monitor, said.
"It's also a moment of vindication that Palestinians have been warning the entirety of the world for decades that they are subjected to systematic war crimes and crimes against humanity.
"And on the other side, we've been faced with a huge campaign of delegitimisation, smears, accusations of anti-Semitism for merely complaining and describing our daily living situation.
"It's a vindicating moment for Palestinians to see that what we have been complaining about is the actual reality."
By：ABC(责任编辑：admin)
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