The polls in the US presidential race are neck and neck but election whisperer Dr Allan Lichtman says America has already decided

会员登录 - 在线投稿 - 设为首页 - 加入收藏 - 网站地图欢迎访问农村日报网！

主页政策解读农村天地德孝乡村致富达人电商/企业民生关注基层建设传媒热点 English

热门搜索：湖北英山湖北鄂州新闻安徽鸿诺湖北罗田惨案不网约车 4车

当前位置：主页 > English 正文

The polls in the US presidential race are neck and neck but election whisperer Dr Allan Lichtman says America has already decided

时间：2024-10-11 11:05 来源：未知作者：admin 阅读：次

By Norman Hermant

7.30

Topic:US Elections

Most political analysts in the US are reluctant to project a winner in this year's race for the White House. Not Professor Allan Lichtman.

Since 1984, Lichtman has been predicting presidential elections. In 10 races over four decades, he has a near-perfect record.

Nicknamed "Nostradamus", he's credited with being one of the few experts to project a Donald Trump victory in 2016, although critics say he predicted Trump would win the popular vote, which he lost.

Professor Allan Lichtman correctly predicted a Donald Trump victory in the 2016 election.

He uses a method developed with Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, renowned for making earthquake predictions.

"We looked at every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980 using the methods of pattern recognition," Dr Lichtman told 7.30.

Based on those patterns, Dr Lichtman developed a method that uses 13 keys to project the winner. His indicators include incumbency, short and long-term economy, social unrest, and White House scandals.

Professor Allan Lichtman has been predicting US presidential elections since 1984.

"They reflected the basic proposition that American presidential elections are primarily votes up or down on the strength and performance of the White House Party," he said.

"The big message is that it's governing, not campaigning, that counts."

As poll after poll finds the margins between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are razor thin, Dr Lichtman believes what happens on the campaign trail doesn't make any difference to the outcome.

This year, he says, the keys point to Ms Harris being able to unlock the White House.

"It's real simple. If five or fewer keys go against the White House Party, they're predicted winners. If six or more go against the White House Party, they're predicted losers. So, six strikes and you're out," he said.

"I deliberately made my prediction before the Harris-Trump debate … because I wanted to make my big point that the keys are pretty much set because they're based primarily on governing."

This time around, Professor Lichtman is projecting a Harris-Walz victory.

"The keys point to America getting a path-breaking president, the first female president, at least cracking, if not shattering the glass ceiling, and the first president of mixed African and Asian descent."

The Electoral College system

Dr Lichtman is an outlier. Most political analysts watching the Harris and Trump campaigns battle it out believe the election is simply too close to call.

For weeks, the average of national polls in the US has shown Ms Harris with a slight edge over Trump.

But in America, national support doesn't determine who wins the White House. The Electoral College does.

Each state's Electoral College votes are determined by its population. For nearly all states, no matter the margin, if you win the state, you get all its votes.

And it takes 270 Electoral College votes to win.

Most analysts believe this year's election will come down to seven battleground states.

Most experts believe this year's election will come down to seven swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.

These are the so-called battlegrounds that could vote either way. Most other states are considered to be safely in the Democrat or Republican column.

That means when it comes to the race for the White House, 43 states are essentially bystanders.

"This time you have a close national election, but so few of the states are actually competitive, so you really do see a laser focus on the handful of states that are really up for grabs," said Kyle Kondik of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

Kyle Kondik says very few states are actually competitive in the national election.

Kondik believes the "shrinking" of the presidential campaign map is a direct result of the Electoral College, which goes back to the founding of the United States.

"This is not a system that you would necessarily design from scratch if you were starting it today. But that's the system that we have."

Australian political researcher and historian Emma Shortis lived in the US and completed her PhD there. She believes the shift away from presidential elections fought nationally in many states across America is a new phenomenon.

'Recent and real change'

Political researcher Emma Shortis has lived and studied in the US.

"It is a real change, and a relatively recent one where so few states are up for grabs," Dr Shortis told 7.30.

"It's worth remembering that a lot of it is also down to a concerted and long-time effort to gerrymander states, so to manipulate electoral systems at the state level so that they become safe.

"They become really locked up by one party or the other."

And no matter who wins the election, Dr Shortis believes America's great political divide isn't going away.

No matter who wins, the political divide in the US is likely to continue after the November election.

"We won't have the answer to the question of American politics kind of wrapped up in a nice little present for us," she said.

"The divisions and the volatility, the dangerous state that American politics finds itself in is likely to continue long after the fifth of November."

Watch 7.30, Mondays to Thursdays 7:30pm on ABC iview and ABC TV

By：https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-10/allan-lichtman-us-election-prediction-keys-kamala-harris/104455998

(责任编辑：admin)

顶一下

(0)

踩一下

(0)

上一篇：What's the difference between a hurricane and a cyclone? It depends on the location of the storm
下一篇：The Met Gala announces 2025 theme and co-chairs, including Lewis Hamilton