When do I need to check in on the US presidential election results?
A woman votes early in Milwaukee, Wisconsin during the 2020 election.
In short:
It's likely US presidential election results will start getting interesting about midday AEDT on Wednesday.
While a result might not be clear on election day itself, there should be a good understanding of what's going on by about 3pm AEDT.
What's next?
Americans start to vote on election day while Australia is sleeping. So when you wake up on Wednesday, coverage will be in full swing.
US presidential election counts are a media event like nothing else on earth.
The world's second-largest democracy organises its elections at the state level, meaning that what we're actually watching is 50 distinct elections all being held on the same day, together contributing to a single result.
Every state has different rules for how votes are cast, how votes are counted, and when that counting begins.
Voters wait in lines at dusk to cast their vote in the 2020 US election in Pennsylvania.
If you're an Australian with a job to do on a Wednesday, it's hard to know when to take your sneaky break to check the latest results.
The basic rule with US elections these days is that the best time to check in on the numbers is exactly 24 hours after the running of the Melbourne Cup — we will know a lot by this point.
Keep in mind, unless something wildly unexpected happens, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump both have about 220 electoral college votes safely tucked away.
There are 93 more available in the seven battleground states, and their target is 270 electoral college votes to win. Polls will close in all of those swing states by 1pm Sydney time — but it will take a couple more hours before we get a clear picture of where the count is headed.
Election inspectors examine a ballot as votes are counted into the early morning hours in Detroit, Michigan in 2020.
But if you're after more specifics, here's how to plan your day, starting in the morning.
The first polls close in the morning, Australian time
To be precise, 10am in Sydney, 9am in Brisbane, 9:30am in Adelaide, 8:30am in Darwin and 7am in Perth.
Don't bother looking up from your laptop — it's just Indiana and Kentucky, and not even the entire state, just the bits that observe East Coast time.
Unless you're desperate to find results from 11 Congressional races, this is best ignored.
Polls close in Florida and Georgia next
When it hits 11am in Sydney, things will get vaguely interesting. That's 10am in Brisbane, 10:30am in Adelaide, 9:30am in Darwin and 8am in Perth.
In years gone by, the closing of polls in Florida was a big deal, but these days, Florida is considered a safe Trump-voting state. If Trump is in trouble in Florida, he's almost certain to lose the election.
Polls are also closing in Georgia, which is a swing state, but they are notoriously sluggish at reporting results in the Peach State, and we won't know much at this point.
Half an hour later, North Carolina exit polls arrive
That's 11:30am in Sydney, 10:30am in Brisbane, 11am in Adelaide, 10am in Darwin and 8:30am in Perth.
If you want to know what's going on, plan to check your phone here.
Numbers from Florida and Georgia will be coming in, and exit polls from North Carolina will also arrive. What this will tell us is whether we're looking at a Kamala Harris landslide, or a close race.
If she's doing well in North Carolina and Georgia exit polls, she's likely to win the election. If not, it just means we're in for a long afternoon.
Polls close in Pennsylvania and most of Michigan — but that doesn't mean it's over
If you're planning to binge coverage as results roll in, turn your TV on at midday Sydney time at the latest.
For Brisbane that means the binge-watch starts at 11am, 11:30am for Adelaide, 10:30am for Darwin, 9am for Perth.
It's going to be interesting from this point, though an actual result will still likely be a way off.
This is when polls close in the most important swing state, Pennsylvania, but it's likely to be too close to call for a while.
Polls indicate that Pennsylvania is likely to be unbelievably tight, and the keystone state is notorious for taking a long time to count votes.
Most of Michigan closes at this point, and things will initially look quite good for Donald Trump. But that probably won't last long.
People cheer after Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden overtook President Donald Trump in the 2020 Pennsylvania general election vote count.
After that, you might be waiting a while
At 12:30pm Sydney time, polls close in Arkansas. Yawn.
Most swing states have closed, time to watch results from key cities like Atlanta, Detroit and Philadelphia
Ding dong, here we go.
It's 1pm in Sydney, midday in Brisbane, 12:30pm in Adelaide, 11:30am in Darwin and 10am in Perth, and things are getting very interesting.
All but one of the swing states will have closed by this stage, and thanks to the concentration of Democratic Party voters in large cities, and the fact large cities take longer to report results, at this point it's going to look very good for Donald Trump.
Pundits will start talking a lot about the outer suburbs of a few key cities — Atlanta, Georgia; Detroit, Michigan; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and Phoenix, Arizona — and they're probably going to be talking about those cities for a few hours.
It's possible Donald Trump will declare victory, even if he hasn't won
By now it's 1:30pm in Sydney, 12:30pm in Brisbane, 1pm in Adelaide, 12pm in Darwin and 10:30am in Perth.
If the race is close, at this point Trump will start to get very agitated.
He will potentially decide to declare victory in this hour — before the grandfather clock in the Mar-A-Lago entrance hall strikes 10.
In 2020, he waited too long to make his erroneous claim of victory — the "Blue Shift" of Democratic votes in large cities had already begun when he took to the podium at 2:45am, Washington time. He won't want to make the same mistake again.
President Donald Trump speaks in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC on election night, 2020.
Nevada polls close, and the final swing state starts tallying votes
Viva Las Vegas.
It's 2pm in Sydney, 1pm in Brisbane, 1:30pm in Adelaide, 12:30pm in Darwin and 11am in Perth.
While Nevada is a swing state, it has the smallest population of the seven battlegrounds, and thus has only six electoral college votes, compared with 19 for the largest swing state, Pennsylvania.
Thanks to this and the peculiarity of the electoral college, Nevada is unlikely to matter much.
If polls are right and Harris wins in Wisconsin and Michigan, all eyes will turn to Pennsylvania and Georgia.
If Harris can win either of these states, she will become the first female president of the United States.
If Vice-President Kamala Harris wins in Wisconsin and Michigan, the race could come down to results in Pennsylvania and Georgia.
That being said, both will take a long time to count, so if we're waiting on them, you might want to put the champagne back in the fridge — it could be a long afternoon.
West Coast polls close, but that's unlikely to bring a result
OK, back when landslide elections happened, this is when they were called — 24 hours after the Melbourne Cup, when polls closed on the US West Coast.
3pm Sydney time, 2pm Brisbane time, 2:30pm Adelaide time, 1:30pm Darwin time and 12pm in Perth.
In 2008 and 2012, this is when US news networks declared Barack Obama the winner.
It seems unlikely the result will be so clear this time. In 2016, it took another three and a half hours before the result was clear, and of course in 2020, it took several days.
This year, this is the time when we should have a fairly clear view of where the election is headed.
There's no guarantee of a result on Wednesday, Australian time
If Trump or Harris are significantly ahead about 3pm Sydney time, pundits will start talking about if and when the other candidate is going to concede defeat.
A woman rides her bike as she takes part in a protest the day after the 2020 US presidential election.
This is likely to mean that Harris has built up a lead in the states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, taking her to 262 electoral college votes. From there, she will only need to win one of Georgia, Pennsylvania or North Carolina to take her to 270.
Or, if Trump is to claim victory, he will have picked off Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, taking him to around 262 electoral college votes, meaning he can reclaim the White House by winning one of Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania.
This is how he won in 2016. In fact, he managed to win all three of those remaining states, leading news outlets to declare him the winner at 6pm Sydney time.
If the result is still unclear at this stage, the pundits will start talking about legal challenges and recounts.
In that case, take the opportunity to go out for a nice meal.
There will be no result on Wednesday, and America is likely headed into another few weeks of chaos.
By：ABC(责任编辑：admin)
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