US election 'oracle' predicts surprise Kamala Harris win in Iowa as Donald Trump rails at 'fake' poll

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US election 'oracle' predicts surprise Kamala Harris win in Iowa as Donald Trump rails at 'fake' poll

时间：2024-11-05 04:00 来源：未知作者：admin 阅读：次

Kamala Harris makes a point to the congregation at a church in Detroit, Michigan on Sunday.

In short:

An opinion poll from Iowa has predicted Democratic nominee Kamala Harris will claim a surprise victory in the state in Tuesday's presidential election.

The Des Moines Register/Selzer poll is rated among the most accurate in the United States, and has a history of correct political predictions.

What's next?

Analysts argue that, although the poll is within the margin of error, the result from Iowa — a state that Donald Trump had been expected to win easily — bodes well for Harris elsewhere.

If you look at only one opinion poll ahead of the US presidential election, many argue it should be Ann Selzer's.

The Iowa-based analyst predicted Donald Trump's victory in 2016 when almost every other crystal ball got smashed.

Her reputation for accuracy has been cemented with swathes of correct forecasts in various US political contests before and after that, to the point she's even been referred to as an "oracle".

Most observers believe Tuesday's election could be among the closest in history, but Selzer's poll made a clear call when it was published at the weekend, and it's good news for Kamala Harris.

More on that later.

Another sample released early on Sunday, local time, had encouraging signs for the Democratic candidate, indicating she could have narrow leads over Trump in multiple battleground states.

The New York Times/Siena College poll claimed Harris was ahead among likely voters in the swing states of Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia.

It predicted Harris and Trump were deadlocked in Michigan and Pennsylvania, which — with its 19 electoral college votes — is among the juiciest prizes on Tuesday.

All results were within the margin of error, except one, which had Trump flipping the state of Arizona comfortably 49 per cent versus 45.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump found time to dance on stage at his rally in Lititz.

Harris and her Republican opponent have spent the final week of the campaign crisscrossing the country, targeting seven states in particular which are considered toss-ups.

That's what makes Selzer's sample from Iowa so interesting — it's not one of them.

Trump won the state by more than 8 percentage points in 2020 and it's not rated as "in play" this time around. Indeed, Harris hasn't even been campaigning there in person.

But the Selzer sample, published in the Des Moines Register late on Saturday, claimed Harris would carry the state 47 per cent to 44 among likely voters.

While the result was within the margin of error, analysts pointed out that even a narrow defeat for the Democratic candidate in a state Trump was predicted to win easily boded well for her in closer races.

Speaking at a rally in Litiz, Pennsylvania, on Sunday, Trump described the Selzer poll as "fake". He also railed against the result on social media, pointing out several other surveys had him leading Iowa by significant margins.

Emerson and Rasmussen polls had the former president winning the state by about 10 points.

Michael Miller, a 62-year-old Trump supporter, told the ABC outside the rally that he was not confident which way the election would go.

"We're all here [and] it looks, 'Wow, everybody's here for President Trump!' but, you know, you go to another rally where Kamala and Tim Walz are, you're going to have the same vibe there," he said.

"They're going to think that they're out front, you know, so it's going to be interesting to see what happens on Tuesday.

"I don't even know if we'll have a winner on Tuesday night."

Carrington Frick, a 23-year-old Trump supporter, agreed.

"It's hard. The polls have been going back and forth. It's pretty much a toss-up," he said.

"So we just — you have to try to spread the word as much as possible and get as many people that you know, out to vote."

Joicen Spratling and Melanie Macias, both 19, are first-time voters who are supporting Kamala Harris.

Meanwhile, outside a Harris rally in East Lansing, Michigan, attendees canvassed by the ABC were predicting a close race.

Paula Pulter argued women were going to be critical to the result.

Polls have consistently showed Harris ahead among women voters, but Trump leading among men.

"I really think that women are going to be the voting bloc that carries her over the top," Ms Pulter said.

"I think that we are finally standing up with our voice and giving her the support that she needs to win this election."

Joicen Spratling, 19, was also at the rally.

Mr Spratling said he believed polls that outlined Michigan would be a nail-biting race.

"It's too close for comfort. I don't know how this many people can support him (Trump) after things he's done and said and after the four years of him being in office and corrupting it," he said.

"So it's scary that it's that close, but I think it is accurate."

By：ABC

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