Joe Biden's stubborn self-belief may have cost him his legacy
analysis
Joe Biden may have exited the presidential race in favour of Kamala Harris but did the delay cost the Democratic party?
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Congratulating Donald Trump on his win would have been a painful phone call.
In recent years, Joe Biden could barely bring himself to call Trump by name.
Instead, he would refer to him as "my predecessor". Now, Biden can just as accurately describe Trump as "my successor".
It's a cruel twist of fate for the man currently occupying the White House.
His victory over Trump in 2020 made him a hero to his party. He had defeated a man that many Democrats painted as an existential threat to America's very democracy.
Joe Biden, the man who had been written off time and time again by his party, had pulled together a broader coalition of support than Hillary Clinton could muster in 2016.
He won back the three core swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin while also turning the more conservative states of Arizona and Georgia blue.
While the count was slow, it was a comprehensive victory despite Trump's refusal to concede.
A crowning achievement after decades in public service.
Access to Joe Biden has been carefully managed throughout his presidency.
But what now seems obvious is that Joe Biden was probably too old.
He was elected at 77 and desperately wanted to run again at 81.
For years, his detractors had accused him of being past it, of showing cognitive decline.
His defenders rejected this wholeheartedly. Verbal gaffes? He'd struggled with a stutter as a child, and occasional relapses were to be expected. Losing his chain of thought? We all have off days but in private, he was clear-headed and incisive. Physical missteps? He was in excellent condition: trim, fit.
He'd faced similar questions in 2020 but addressed them in part by promising to be a "transitional president", one who would pass the torch to the next generation. He just needed to beat Trump first.
Donald Trump claimed victory after flipping several key states.
The problem was, Trump wasn't vanquished after being thrown out of office in 2020.
He retained an iron grip on the Republican base despite his role in the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, being charged with dozens of criminal counts, being found liable for sexual assault and being guilty of fraud.
Trump made it clear he'd be running again in 2024. Joe Biden said he was the best shot of beating him again.
Shutting out competition
Biden deployed the full weight of his authority as leader of his party to see off potential challengers.
He changed the order of primary contests to ensure South Carolina — the state where he'd won handsomely in the primary contest in the 2020 cycle — was elevated earlier in the schedule and he cut off a competitor gaining momentum in states where he'd struggled for support.
He publicly stared down rivals while privately exerting pressure on those most likely to challenge him. The party argued that any challenge to Biden would only strengthen Trump's position.
It worked. There was no real primary contest. Relatively niche candidates put their hands up, but none of the stars of the party dared.
Now, in retrospect, that may have hurt the Democrats' chances.
As a 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, Joe Biden was the party favourite.
Joe Biden had been bedevilled by low approval ratings for most of his term. He'd been dealt a difficult hand.
Globally, inflation was out of control, partly due to how the COVID-19 pandemic had disrupted global trade and the large amounts of stimulus that governments, including the US, had engaged in.
Fairly or not, he was blamed for the price rises Americans saw when they went to buy life's essentials.
In addition, he mishandled immigration policy. For years, he refused to acknowledge a major problem before finally, this year, using executive power to harden the border.
Yet despite his unpopularity, he would not stand aside and nor was the party willing to crowbar him out.
Hiding away
During his time in office, access to Joe Biden was carefully managed. He participated in few interviews and almost no press conferences.
His most common interactions with the press were brief remarks he would make to shouted questions either at the end of meetings with world leaders or on his way to travel on Air Force One or Marine One.
This didn't allow proper interrogation of his mental capacity.
So although rumours persisted of his decline, it was impossible for the public to assess for themselves.
Until, that is, a career-ending performance on the debate stage.
Joe Biden's demise began following his debate with Donald Trump.
There, a halting and seemingly confused president badly stumbled.
Despite a range of excuses being offered for the poor performance, the Democratic machine finally recognised it had a major problem on its hands.
While Biden tried to right the ship with a series of unconvincing interviews, senior figures started to apply pressure behind the scenes. Most notably, former speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Eventually, the pressure became overwhelming and Joe Biden stepped aside.
But not before he publicly anointed his vice-president, Kamala Harris, as his successor.
Joe Biden was bedevilled by low approval ratings for most of his term in office.
This public endorsement and the proximity to the election gave the VP the ammunition she needed to scare off potential challengers.
It meant that the woman who had famously flamed out of the 2020 Democratic primary contests before a single vote had been cast, after a badly mismanaged campaign and failing to earn support, became the unopposed standard-bearer for the party in 2024.
Despite an initial wave of relief-fuelled enthusiasm among Democrats, happy to have a candidate who could speak clearly and with confidence, her shortcomings quickly became evident.
She was nervous and unconvincing in interviews, prone to "word salad" responses when pressed, where she didn't say much of anything while deploying complicated language.
While a competent reader of an autocue, she struggled with anything off the cuff.
She also seemed uncertain of how to both own the successes of Biden's term and sell her experience as the number two, while distancing herself from some of the more unpopular aspects.
Her inability to find a single thing she would have done differently from Biden when asked in an interview encapsulated the problem.
Let the people decide
What's clear in retrospect is that the Democrats should have run a competitive contest to decide who should lead them in this election.
They should have allowed the next generation of talent to sell themselves and their ideas and let the people decide.
There's a stable of talent ready for the opportunity: Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, one of the most effective political communicators in recent decades and unafraid to take a Democratic message to conservative Fox News; Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who enjoys huge popularity in a critical swing state; or Elizabeth Warren with her populist economic message.
Joe Biden handed over the presidential nomination to his vice-president, Kamala Harris.
Kamala Harris may have won a competitive process. It would have also given her the opportunity to hone her message about why she deserved the top job, with a more substantial message than just that the current holder had hand-picked her.
While he will want to be remembered as the only person to defeat Donald Trump in an election, Joe Biden's stubborn refusal to vacate the field until forced, and his stymieing of a competitive process to choose a new candidate, badly hobbled the Democrats.
Instead of handing control of the White House to a new generation of Democratic leaders, he'll now suffer the ignominy of watching Donald Trump once again take the reins of power.
By：ABC(责任编辑：admin)
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